And the dice are NOT RANDOM - 100% video proof browsing

• I have tagged you all because all of you have recently participated in a discussion about the randomness of dice results here at Catan Universe (https://forum.catanuniverse.com/topic/7996/the-dice-are-not-random?page=1). All of you had observed certain irregularities, all of you had grown suspicious regarding the funtionality of the RNG - and rightfully so, as I am about to finally prove.

In their obliviousness and arrogance, the @administrators have repeatedly treated you like children who were just too stupid / too uneducated to understand variance and tried to settle the matter by posting links to articles about topics like "the gambler's fallacy".

I have just filmed a video that serves as 100% proof for the fact that the dice here at Catan Universe are NOT RANDOM, like all of you have been suspecting for such a long time - and contrary to what @Developers, @KOSMOS, @Moderators, @administrators have been claiming so stubbornly.

In this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmYJt7aOmmw&ab_channel=Let'sPlayCatan-DasDuell), I correctly predict the results of 10 (!!!) consecutive dice rolls in a game of "Rivals for Catan". The probability of this happening by pure chance equals to one sixth to the power of 10, which is so ridiculously tiny that we can now consider the non-randomness of dice rolls at Catan Universe to be finally and officially proven. It is no longer a theory that @Developers, @KOSMOS, @Moderators, @administrators can contradict, it is simply a proven fact that can be comprehended by anybody willing to watch my 20 minutes video.

I ask you all to share this video with as many people as possible. I think it is fair to say that this is a proper scandal: Almost half a decade after its release, the game still does not offer random dice rolls! This topic deserves the broadest attention it can get. I guess this is the only way to make Catan Universe @administrators and @KOSMOS finally react.

@Developers, @KOSMOS, @Moderators, @administrators it is time now. Time to finally leave your state of constant denial and admit that there are horrible, very fundamental flaws concerning your dice. Just stop making excuses and face reality. This would be the very first step to regain any credibility whatsoever. You cannot contradict the evidence I deliver in this video, you cannot blame it on "gambler's fallacy" or anything.

Nobody wants to bully you. We all just want a playable game that resembles the real life playing experience. With non-random dice, this is absolutely not the case. Your reactions to critical comments here in the forum during the last months have been either non-existent or totally oblivious. It is time for a change. You owe it to your paying customers but also to the dignity of Klaus Teuber's legacy.

"For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life."

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• @Jesus-liebt-Dich well put, well proven, and thank you.

When a player can predict, nine out of ten times, the next roll of the dice, based on his resource count, robber-covered number, what he needs to draw a particular resource to advance, or what number he DOESNT have settled, then THE DICE ARE OBVIOUSLY NOT RANDOM and the game’s algorithm is picking winners.

Fix it.

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• @Doc-B. You are welcome!

I don't know what I find more disconcerting - that it has been finally PROVEN in an incontrovertible way that the dice at CATAN Universe are reliably predictable OR that the @administrators have been bold enough to simply ignore this whole topic for 4 days now! Even when confronted with this 100% undeniable evidence, they are apparently still unwilling to admit that they have a HUGE problem.

Answering user inquiries regarding such comparably irrelevant issues like ELO changes (as they did in this thread only one hour ago: https://forum.catanuniverse.com/topic/8600/elo-rankings/2) seems to be higher of a priority to them than dealing with the here discussed evidence for their demonstrably broken RNG. In any case, it shows that the @administrators are active in this forum, that they are reading our comments and that they are ignoring this topic deliberately.

One has to wonder whether this is just pure escapism or whether they are trying to simply hush the whole issue and sit it out, trying to avoid any negative PR before their upcoming online WC. What is the point of hosting an official CATAN World Championship on a playing site that generates non-random dice rolls?!

"For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life."

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@Jesus-liebt-Dich

Not replying does certainly not mean ignoring. In fact, we've been discussing your post with the dev team this morning. In the meantime, we answered some other posts. We do take allegations like this seriously and investigate and therefore didn't get back to you earlier.

I still need to get some more details from the dev team later today, but from what I already know I think I have an idea of what is happening.

As you're making very broad allegations, could you please confirm that you were in fact able to do this in any other game mode than the very specific setup in Rivals that you showed in the video? Feel free to send me a direct message on the board and I'll hop on a chat with you as well.

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I have had a chat with both the development team and @Jesus-liebt-dich yesterday and I would like to shed some light on his observations and the team’s comments.

First and foremost: Dice results in CU are and always have been randomly generated. However, under specific circumstances, it is possible to predict only the first dice roll of a game of Rivals (esp. variant: The first Catanians) reliably.

This is what is shown in the video is true: It is always the first roll of a new game of “Rivals – The first Catanians.”

So how can this be, if dice are random? When starting a game, there is a correlation between the random generation of the game area (card stacks, etc.) and the first dice roll. Only in Rivals, this correlation can enable players to make assumptions about the result of the first dice roll. Depending on the parameters, datasets, and method used for this, this can work quite reliably.

However, this will not work for any subsequent dice rolls, as the random number generator updates every dice roll by (again randomized) values and during many other in-game events.
Furthermore, this will not work in the board game due to the very different game setup and parameters used. Nevertheless, this issue will be addressed.

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• After some time of reconsideration, I have to apologise to the official @administrators from Catan Universe and also from @KOSMOS.

I still think that the predictability of dice rolls - even if it occurs only under very special setups and circumstances - 5 years after the game's release is a huge problem that shouldn't be played down and that should become TOP PRIORITY among @Developers for the next cycle of fixes.

HOWEVER, I have to acknowlegde that the general tone in which I presented my criticism both in my forum posts as well as in my video didn't quite match my general percecption of what a respectful communication between human beings should normally look like. In addition to this, the conclusions I drew from my initial observation were apparently too generalising. Statements like "Every dice roll on Catan Universe is 100% predictable" were obviously an out of place exaggeration, given the fact that the predictions are only possible under the very specific, above described circumstances. It was also very out of line to diagnose "arrogance" on the @administrators part. Who am I to judge upon that?

My thought process in this context was rather simple: "If such predictions are possible in ANY CASE, they are most certainly also possible in many other cases that just haven't been discovered yet." So my very broad and generalising conclusions were, contrary to the point I was initially (and rightfully) intending to make, based upon speculations instead of hard facts, which has to be called unfair after all.

In retrospect, I would say that my heated state of emotion was further fueled by a long history of frustration due to recurrent bugs and other technical issues on Catan Universe that have been going on for years now.

All this being said, while some of these aspects may partly serve as an EXPLANATION for my overreaction, none of them can serve as a JUSTIFICATION and therefore the hereby expressed apology was due.

As a further consequence of my newly gained view on the whole topic, I have already deleted both the English-speaking as well as the German-speaking video. I will also delete my German-speaking post here in the forum, leaving only this one open as a public source of clarification.

None of these measures has been asked for by the Catan Universe @administrators, they are just a result of my personal change of heart.

Finally, I would like to express my very special and isolated apologies to the people from @KOSMOS. I was under the erronious assumption that KOSMOS were the official rights holder concerning the trademark CATAN (which is, as I have now learnt, in fact the Catan GmbH). As a consequence of this, I (wrongly) assumed some kind of co-responsibility on the part of @KOSMOS for certain unpleasant experiences people have to deal with when playing at Catan Universe. It was never my intention to act in a misleading, defamatory way.

I hope that all the addressed entities will be able to accept my apology and that any potential for misunderstanding or hurt feelings has now been removed.

All the best!

"For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life."

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• OK, there is an explanation for that. However, I take issue with the comment from the administrator that the dice rolls are and always have been random. That is absolutely not true. I don't know about multi-player games because I stopped playing them. But in single player mode (one person against the AI players), it is blatantly obvious that once the "human" player gets a good lead, the AI players start getting an inordinate number of 7s. As often as like 7 of 10 or even higher. It happens every single game in which I get a good lead AND there are app reviews where others have noted this "catch up" algorithm. And as you stated, what is more frustrating... that they built in this feature and thought it was a good thing or the fact that they don't own up and admit it and instead pretend a thing that everyone knows exists does not really exist.

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• @Jesus-liebt-Dich wow! It sounds like they came at you with a potential lawsuit. Nobody flips side so quickly without "motivation." I come from a family of lawyers and can see the influence here. You removed your video?! You removed and/or clarified language, etc. Darn, now I really wish I saw that video.

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