Random Number Generator

  • I'm sorry to say but your random number generator doesn't work properly. I'm watching it quit a while and it doesn't make sense. especially in 3 people's game, when the game is fast numbers tend to repeat themselves in a too strange manner (like 10 times 6 in a row or things like that.
    I think you should check it.

  • You got a six ten times in a row? Wow, that's so random. Almost like it's random.

  • Probability of rolling six tens in a row (assuming only 6 rolls total):

    P = (3/36)^6 = approximately 1 in 3 million

    Now assuming an average game sees around 200 rolls, I estimate the probability of seeing 6 tens in a row at least once or more during a single game to be at least around 1 in 100,000.

    If you play 1,000 games then you have at least around a 1% chance of seeing this happen at least once or more.

    If you have 10,000 players play at least 1,000 games or more then it is almost 100% certainty you are going to see this happen to at least one or more people. You just happened to be one of those people.

  • OK. I'll try to make my declaration more strong. I followed and written the numbers of the dice for about 30 games and i found somthing very strange. about 50% (!) of the times the robber has moved from one location to another, the number that was rolled just following that was the number that the robber was moved to. this doesn't seem to be random... what do you say about that ?

  • That does seem strange. Assuming most people will place the robber on a 6 or an 8 most of the time then the chance of rolling a 6 or an 8 is about 14% each. If this is happening 50% of the time then assuming the robber is rolled about 30 times on average per game the probability of this happening in one game is:

    P = (0.14/0.50)^30 = 0

  • We just played a game with sixteen (yes, 16!) 11s. And I have to agree on the robber move issue, and it isn't just 6s and 8s.

  • Yes, and that robber move issue only happens vs. the human player. I've been thinking about doing a full statistical and numerical analysis of 100 games, because I'm that person. It will take a long time because I will have to play in the slowest modes in order to have time to write everything down, or I will have to scan and transcribe the details from the full game log each time. Or maybe I'll record the screen and play it back to see.

    If I do that, I will report it all here for everyone's benefit.

Log in to reply