Targeting Patterns



  • I am really trying not to believe in some kooky conspiracy theory, but the dice rolling makes it almost impossible. No matter what happens, the robber spends the entire game on my most important hex. If I play a knight card, the next roll is almost always a seven. If I have 8 cards, the next roll is a seven. Almost every time. When the robber is placed on my hex, the next roll is almost always the number of that hex. I just went an entire game where I was on an 8 and the only time 8s were rolled is when the robber was on my 8. I have played several games now where I have built on 6s and 8s and we rolled 3s, 4s, and 11s instead. If these were all isolated incidents that happened from time to time, I would chalk it up to bad luck. However, this has become a very clear pattern and I have no idea why they would do this. There is no way this is not part of some sort of pattern or algorithm. I can literally predict what the next dice roll(s) are going to be based on the number of cards I have or the situation I am in. I created a new profile, which made a huge difference until I got to level 25, then it started targeting me again. I don't know why the developers of this game can't just randomize the dice rolling like everyone is asking them to do. The board game is infinitely better because you actually have to use strategy. Case in point... I just played a game where I was on 5s(brick), 8s,(wood) 9s(wheat, 10s(sheep), and other #s. I had harbormaster and longest road and was winning by 6 points. We then rolled eight 3s over the next 20 or so rolls which allowed my opponent to take longest road and eventually win the game. Considering everything else, there is absolutely NO WAY that was random. Bottom line...this game cheats! It literally just happened again for the third game in a row. This time I was on 6s and 8s for wheat and ore, had longest road, and was one point away from winning when all of the sudden, we couldn't stop rolling 11s. This allowed my opponent to take longest road and win. There is NO WAY this would happen in real life. It not only cheats, but it does so in a way that is flagrant and obvious. It is really too bad that the programmers do this. I used to love this game. The board game is still fun though because it can't fix the dice.



  • @Robert-the-Conqueror definitely agree. Just played a game where 6 came up once and the most popular roll was 11 - impossible to win



  • Hmm.. interesting point about getting to level 25. I always thought it was based on ELO and win streak. I guess I hit 1100 ELO (diamond rank) around the same time as achieving level 25. There is no question it is rigged. It's really sad they can't be upfront about it. They continue to claim it's completely random. Honestly, our only option is to give bad reviews wherever (mine will be steam) until it becomes a problem for them and they are forced to change it. Until then, just try to ignore it, or play another game. Definitely don't give them another dime.



  • @Robert-the-Conqueror said:

    The dice is TOTALLY not random! When I play with players that have a lower ELO than me (most of the time), is happening what you describe. This is an unfair and unreal algorithm!!



  • You should know that statistics and probability only become valid predictors with large sample sizes (several hundred rolls), so in the course of an average game you actually should be seeing non-bell curve distribution spikes. And I have had real life games where 6 was rolled five times in a row and the 5 and 9 were hardly rolled at all - so it does happen with real dice too. This doesn't mean the Catan Universe RNG isn't wonky, but it's hard to know for sure unless they released the algorithm - which they won't since it is proprietary intellectual property.

    I did find an interesting post about RNG's when I was checking out colonist.io - on their FAQ (or maybe blog) they talked about how their algorithm was completely random and everybody kept complaining about number streaks (same number rolled 3 or more times in a row) and non bell-curve distributions. So they were getting the same sort of complaints with their "completely random" RNG. They ended up making an optional, weighted, card-stack algorithm to reduce the likelyhood of number streaks and ensure a more "bell-curve" fit in most games.

    Catan Universe also has a "card stack" option which is supposed to make the curve fit better for most games, but I don't think it is an option for auto matches - only custom.


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