# 7 Rolls on your turn browsing

• It seems like a majority of the time that I have more than 7 cards playing Catan Universe, I roll a 7. It's not every single time, but most of the time I have more than 7 cards I can almost count on the roll being a 7. I know it happens from time to time when playing the board game,. but it happens much more frequently in Catan Universe. It seems like the game is programmed to give a higher chance of rolling a 7 if you have more than 7 cards. Does anyone else notice this?

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• Absolutely. Also highly unlikely roll distribution over the course of games (like no nines rolled in 78 turns). There definitely seems to be some non-random weighting to the rolls. Hopefully this will be improved in the upcoming update.

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• Absolutely. I just expect that if it’s my turn and I have 8+ cards I’ll need to get rid of half. Sometimes I’m pleasantly surprised that I don’t roll a 7. I changed to “card stack” and didn’t notice a huge difference.

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• @LemuelB2 Do you know you have 1 chance on 10 000 (or 0,01%) that something like this happen?

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• @canuelj21 yeah, like I said, highly unlikely. Seems to be slightly better in the new update, but dice rolls still appear to be weighted. The problem with RNG is they aren't really random.

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• Agreed. I also find that if the AI players are on both 8’s and I’m on both 6’s, then the 8’s will roll 4 or 5 turns in a row but no 6’s at all. Even 2 & 12 will roll more often than 6. It’s a really odd logic, but happens regularly enough that I know it’s programmed that way.

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• @canuelj21

1/10,000th = 0.0001 - Which is false.

Every time you roll the dice you have the same probability to roll a 7 which is 6/36 (16.6% chance)

2 1/36 (2.778%)
3 2/36 (5.556%)
4 3/36 (8.333%)
5 4/36 (11.111%)
6 5/36 (13.889%)
7 6/36 (16.667%)
8 5/36 (13.889%)
9 4/36 (11.111%)
10 3/36 (8.333%)
11 2/36 (5.556%)
12 1/36 (2.778%)

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• @Jayneck you missed the % sign in the post. That moves the decimal two places to the right.

Also, probability calculations multiply the fraction over the number of rolls. So if you have a 6/36 (0.166) chance of rolling a number on a single roll, the chance of rolling that same number 5 times in a row is:

0.166 x 0.166 x 0.166 x 0.166 x 0.166 = 0.00012

Or . 012%

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• Wowza didn't even know that about the % sign.

In my (clearly, and admittedly limited) imagination I assumed that random would mean that each time you roll you have the exact same chance to roll it again. That the chances are unaffected.

But you are saying that previous rolls count?
What you are saying makes sense to me now. But it still makes my brain itchy.
Thank you!

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• @Jayneck That's just the math part for probability calculations. The problem is too many people assume that such calculations will be accurate predictors in the short run, but they aren't.

For any given roll, the odds of a specific number coming up would be as you posted - and the dice have no memory, so they don't know what they rolled previously.

For the calculations to be even close to accurate predictors you need a large sample size - several hundred, or even a thousand rolls. For a normal game of Catan (usually less than 100 rolls) probability calculations are pretty much useless.

Another thing people forget is that a low probability isn't the same as not possible. The chance of hitting all six numbers in the lottery are one in a few million, but it still happens.

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• Without a doubt. It's exasperating.

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