Dice rolls



  • Are all free games dice math based, I am in a game and on roll #33 with zero 8's?



  • Try checking the Card Stack option. Seems to be helping with the dice distribution problem that the admins may or may not admit exists.



  • Such a "problem" exists with real-world dices, too :)



  • @playtricks I don't believe so... odds would be like several million to one of 33 rolls with no 8. They have a bug in their weighted odds algorithm.



  • @Steve-the-Conqueror Card stack option is better but only marginally. They have a bug in their statistical weighting. They don't take into consideration that the more recently a dice has been rolled, its weighting should be reduced and visa versa... that is how it ends up with things that happen that in real life are like a million or two to one odds.



  • @Rocky0809 The problem exists in the for-sale version of Catan as well, at least in my personal experience. (admin disaggrees)



  • Programming a dice roll is pretty basic. Google it. No dev is going to mess that up or bother programming in manipulating the dice rolls depending on the situation. Guys it's all in your head.



  • @AllenInSLC

    You are talking utter nonsense. Pure gambler's fallacy. If I roll 10 times 6 in row, then the chance of the 11th roll being another 6 is 5/36. Dice don't have a memory.

    I'm pretty sure that if you take a million games of Catan Universe, that you'll have a normal distribution. But in a single game where there are only 100 rolls max, then you can surely have some odd results. Statistiscally speaking, 100 rolls is way too less to reach a nice bell-curve each and every time. That's in real life, and that's how it should be in Catan too.

    Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. But if upi devise a consistent tactic of never going on 8's or 6's and always on 2's and 12's because you think CU rolls are rigged, then I wish you good luck on consistently winning any games.



  • Theoretically this last post is right on. But playing the game there are definitely some improbable consistencies that are troubling. For instance, the dice roll OFTEN follows the robber, especially on the first roll after the robber is placed. Sometimes three in a row after placement. Highly improbable. Dice don’t have memories, but improbable is improbable.
    Second, sevens are often rolled at the end of a game to prevent (I believe) the game from ending too quickly.
    Third, and in the same vein, I’ve yet to chart it, because I do have a life, but I’m suspicious of the dice trying to keep the games even and not allowing the leader to get too far ahead.
    Just look for these tendencies. The published algorithm may or may not be what’s actually going on, and frankly I doubt that it is.
    “You shoulda be a math major.”
    Prof Sung, freshman year of college
    I went liberal arts instead
    LOL



  • I have often discussed this with the admins here. They always retreat to the position that a single game is just a runaway and that in infinity the famous Gaussian bell curve stands flawless and wonderful. Barf choking! I have never recorded permanences, but I play a lot and it is obvious that the dice algorithm tends to be short term to series, even if after a thousand games there might be a realistic curve. If you are unlucky enough to be on the wrong number and your opponent has a lucky streak at the beginning, the game is of course over.
    Concerning the balancing of the dice, the explanation is very simple. It is a German company that runs the whole thing. And Germany is a communist country. Not officially. But I live here and have been an entrepreneur all my life. The basic attitude here is deep red and those who succeed must be punished immediately. That is unfortunately the perverse reality in my country.



  • Not quite sure whether the people above me are trolling or not, but I'm still going to react seriously.

    About the robber: usually, a robber is placed on a high producing number, such as a 5, 6, 8 or 9. This makes it more probable that the dice will 'follow the robber' then if you would place the robber on a 2 or a 12. Have you ever tried that to see whether that insane theory holds true?

    The two posts above this are also contradicting each other: the first suspects that the game is trying to balance things and not let the leader get ahead too much, whereas the second makes mention of "a few lucky rolls at the start which means the game is already over then". Both can't be true at the same time.

    I think the problem has more to do with frustration about particular games, rather than the dice being rigged.



  • @Billusmaximus Your definition of communism is a bit off, I am sorry to tell you.
    And to call Germany a communist country is, in my opinion, very inaccurate after decades of conservative rule.



  • I have been playing this game since the early days of playcatan.com, in the current Catan I have a Grand Master ranking in Cities and Knights. I can tell you without question the dice system is seriously flawed and poorly coded. I have played numerous games where mathematically high probability numbers barely roll, and even get out rolled grossly by the 2 and or 12, 11, and 3. Once a number starts to get hot, it tends to stay that way. So for example if early game the 3 is rolling hot, I will inventor that if possible because the odds are extremely high that number will continue to be hot.

    Now I can understand this can happen in real life, but the kind of improbabilities encountered happen in real life maybe 1 in 100 games. On Catan universe it happens ALL THE TIME. Playcatan.com was programmed properly which is why everyone loved it, can't say the same for this game. I saw someone talk about turning on a card stack? Unless I am missing something for ranked Cities and Knights game is there an option somewhere that helps with this problem? I would love to know, thanks.



  • @SliceNDice said:

    Once a number starts to get hot, it tends to stay that way. So for example if early game the 3 is rolling hot, I will inventor that if possible because the odds are extremely high that number will continue to be hot.

    Exactly. If 3 gets rolled 3 times in first 3 Orbits = Build a city on a 3, it will pay off

    If 7 starts rolling a lot, it will be a game full of 7 = be careful going in the obvious lead
    The opposite is true.

    The problem is that devs see a normal bell curve in a sum of all games. But such observation ignores the fact that there’s a way too much anomalic dice rolls in single games.
    I’d like to ask devs if number 9 is not quite out of this bell curve? Since I personally start to rate 9 as a Six Pips number.



  • I could show you a summary of all my games played and 7 averages 25%. Should be 16.67.

    There are serious errors in coding



  • @Rkheil

    So true!


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