Catan Statistics



  • Hello,

    I participate in a real-life Settlers of Catan meetups group which tracks various statistics for all the games we've played the last 4 years. I was wondering if there were any statistics that Universe of Catan has gathered and would be willing to share with the community. A response either way would be greatly appreciated.

    Thanks!



  • What you did sounds awesome and would you mind sharing the stats you collected with us?


  • administrators

    @ZealotTKO that highly depends on what kind of statistics you are looking for :)



  • @Administrator any and all statistics! But in particular, anything that'd help answer these questions:

    • In general, what is the effect of starting position on winrate?
    • What is the value of each resource, when factoring into account:
      • Probability of each player receiving each resource
      • Port positions
      • Variance of resource attainment (e.g. a resource with 2 3s vs a resource with 1 8 )
    • How do winning players usually get 10 points (e.g. is it more common to win from longest road or largest army or both?)

    @art2018 I will ask my friend for permission to share his statistics with you.

    @Administrator is there any way to simulate games played with just Catan Universe Bots? I would also be interested in conducting Monte Carlo experiments to try to answer these questions.



  • @ZealotTKO this would be VERY intresting.

    I don't belive this will be realised but it would be awesome. :)

    "When you don't know what you should do, look to the stars, they will always shine for you."

    0


  • @ZealotTKO Is there a simple answer here!? Starting position obviously affects your likelihood of winning, some positions are hard to beat (unblockable dev card producing positions, or redundant key resources with ports), some less than ideal positions block up the board and/or otherwise strong players. But even a strong position can be hindered by how aggressively other players respond, how willingly other players trade (or don't), or how much you neglect certain players, etc.,.

    That said, I suppose it would be a lot of fun to try and run your own simulations and see what various possible game outcomes could be for any given board or tactics.



  • @ZealotTKO Thank you, I hope he gives you the permission. You can also send it privately to me if you want to keep it confidential.



  • @art2018 my friend is willing to share the stats with you, he just wants a bit clearer picture of what you want to do. Worst case scenario I can probably give you access to the doc without our names in it



  • @MonkeyZ I understand Settlers is a very complex game with many things to be taken into consideration when playing 1 game over another. No one strategy works for every game, which is why Settlers is so great! The purpose of analyses like this is to be able to say "on average, I'd expect position X to win slightly more (or less) than expected", or "its very rare to win without largest army OR longest road" (which may or may not be true :))



  • @administrators @Administrator I don't mean to nag, but any updates on the viability of getting some (any) statistics on gameplay? Any response would be appreciated, just so I'm not holding my breath anymore :P


  • administrators

    @ZealotTKO Sorry for the delayed response. Due to the holiday season, we haven´t been to look into it in detail But now that everyone is back on board we did a quick investigation.

    Since our systems haven´t been built to extract the data you are looking for it would, unfortunately, be a large endeavor to extract the data.

    If there are more people out there wondering about the same questions, I would suggest founding a guild that focuses on collecting the data from a sample large enough (e.g 1000 games). Sure it will take some time but it could be a nice community experience.


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