Dice Rolls in Auto Match Cause Imbalance. Add Dice Mode and Resource Bonus Options.
I enjoy Catan universe, I just think the dice rolls are hurting the game. A match where 6 rolls three times and 8 rolls thirteen times, is neither balanced nor fun.
The unmodified random dice generator is the only option in Auto Match, so most times players have to deal with unfair game play. Example 1. Example 2. Example 3. Frustrated players that are far behind either patiently wait to be put out of their misery, or give up and quit.
It would be nice if the dice rolls were more realistic. But if anything, please add Dice Mode and Resource Bonus as options in Auto Match.
Custom Match has Dice mode, but it's hard to get players. And you can already use Dice Mode and Resource Bonus when playing on Android Phone, so add it to Auto Match as well. Thank you.
The problem with adding the alternative Dice Mode to Auto Matches is that it would split the player base in two. People would essentially be playing two different games. It would also take longer to find matches, with less chances of finding players that match your ELO and Karma.
Normal, random dice are the standard for Catan, just as in the actual board game. And just like any other game where dice are involved, Catan is a game of chance. It is not "fair" by nature. Even if you do everything right and the other players are not as skilled, you cannot expect to win every game. Being successful in a game of chance means that you will win more games than weaker players in the long run, but there will regularly be games where you are just out of luck.
Your examples of "unfair" dice statistics are nothing unusual. Dice results do not have to follow any specific distribution in such a small sample. Only in very large data sets the quantities of rolls of each number will approach their statistically expected values, but single games of Catan, or even several, are not nearly enough for that.
Your perception that the dice rolls in Catan Universe are not "realistic" might come from the fact that you do not keep statistics of every dice roll in real world games. And of course it can be tempting to blame it on the developers if the dice rolls in Catan Universe are not to your liking, which is not an option with real dice.
That being said, it is perfectly fine if you prefer the Dice Mode and the developers will surely listen to you and others voicing their opinions on this matter. But it might not be feasible at the moment to add the Dice Mode to Auto Matches.
You don't know for sure how much of the player base would choose dice mode. And even if a majority choose to use dice mode then a majority wont experience significant changes in wait times, the same goes if a majority chooses not to use it. And if a player wants to wait longer to experience the game play they prefer then that is their decision to make. And if the average wait time is 1 min and is increased by 50%, that is an extra 30 sec, which is not going to kill anyone.
Dice in this game are not normal. If you think the dice here act the same as in the board game, they do not. A unmodified random dice generator is anything but normal, and not what the board game uses because it removes the predictability of the dice. The board game is very fair because it actually uses normal dice that have predictability. When predictability is removed then it becomes unfair and unbalanced, because players begin each game by placing settlements in the most favorable spot based on the predictability of certain numbers rolling. Unless you want to try and tell me that most players first pick is on 12, 2, and 11. The board game even proves predictability by the dots under the numbers on resources. And yes by chance you will get unlucky and get a result way out of the statistical probability, but that is not normal and should't happen often. As I said before the problem is the dice in Catan Universe are not normal, and adding dice mode would give players a chance to use dice that actually are normal.
My examples are very unusual. Play the board game and tell me out forty eight rolls that 8 occurs thirteen times and 6 occurs three times. Forty eight rolls is not a small sample, and it doesn't take seven games to get statistical results. To prove this I rolled a pair of dice 45 times in a row trying to simulate one real game. Here is the honest unmodified result Example - Real Life Is it perfectly statistical? No. But is it fairly close? Yes. If I usually got this kind of result in the game I wouldn't have posted at all. And this result is far from the examples I gave earlier of unfair dice rolls. Proving you don't need a large set of data to get statistical results.
It is not my perception that the rolls are not realistic, it is the truth. That is the whole point of dice mode. I'm not blaming developers, it was made clear they created a "unmodified random dice generator", they also created "dice mode". All Im asking is the option to use a different creation of theirs in Auto Match. I am very grateful for dice mode, but wheres the opportunity to use it? Its not all about winning or losing, because I have won plenty of games, as I said before it's about fairness, balance, and predictability.
Whether Dice Mode is feasible or not, I want to hear the answer from the developers.
I'm not saying that there aren't any problems with dice. There probably is something wrong with the way random numbers are generated (Repeated sequences have been identified and verified by several players already. Cards in decks are in the same locations etc.).
40, even 70 rolls (usual in an average Catan game) is a very small sample when rolling 2 dice. 2 dice offers 36 combinations for dice rolls. Saying that with 40 rolls, each combination should always be rolled in a binomial way is wrong. You just got lucky with your real life example.
You can use the first example in here. Hit run several times and see how even with 100 rolls the results can vary significantly.
Dice modes only make the game more predictable. So people who get their good numbers in the beginning have incentives to expand to the numbers which have not "rolled" yet because they knew these numbers will come up sooner than the ones they are on. It seems fair at first but to me it just makes the game play in a different way from how it is supposed to. There already is dice mode in CU. But as you know, using different customizations for matchmaker will make the game much more slower. Hence a need for a lobby system but that's a different story.
This is not a debate about statistics.
Neither am I saying that dice will always act a certain way. As I said, Its about giving players who want a more predictable game the dice mode option with auto matchmaking. I'm not saying dice mode is perfect and will solve all problems.
I was only stating a simple mathematical truth that rolling a pair of six sided die will produce a somewhat predictable trend. Whether it be once, hundred, or a nine hundred thousand times, my guess will always be, most likely, that 7 will appear most, that 2 and 12 appear the least, and 5 and 9 will appear somewhere in the middle. I understand perfectly well that wont always be the case.
If you could run that simulator enough times until 7 rolls the least, or 2 / 12 roll the most, please take a picture, I would love to see it.
@Hero1 Here are our thoughts about dice mode in auto-match:
- We see from our Userdata that dice mode is only used by around 10-13 % players setting up games.
-> Creating a pool in that size for Auto-Match doesn´t seem very feasible at the moment.
- Dice Mode isn't really part of the Catan experience. It was created especially for the digital versions to counter allegations of "rigged" dice. But it bears the cost of changing the game dramatically. If you are aware (to some extent) of what numbers come up next the game becomes predictable. Predictable games will be abandoned by players more frequently since the outcome is ... well... more predictable. If I am in the last place and know my numbers won´t come up anymore (or my number is blocked by the robber) the tendency of leaving a game is much higher.
That is why we don´t see the urge to implement dice mode in auto-match at the moment.
Oh and BTW... I just couldn´t help myself and did run the RNG posted here 3 times with a count of 50 dice rolls. One of the 3 results I got was a follows:
That is an outcome we would probably get trashed for too here in the forum
Thank you very much for your response.
I understand what your saying, may I add that the reason only 10% of players use dice mode is because of the difficulty of starting a custom game. Auto-match games are 90% easier to start because you dont have to friend request players, wait for request to accepted, invite players, then wait for invitations to be accepted. If it were easy to start a custom game and use dice mode I would't have posted in the first place.
Is there a way to take a poll to see the popularity of the dice mode idea?
And is Resource Bonus feasible? If a player using dice mode knows their number wont come up for whatever reason, then there is still hope with resource bonus.
Thank you again for listening.
@Hero1 the numbers I gave you also include the usage of dice mode in single player games. Sorry I wasn´t clear about that.
Ressource Bonus is no part of the original board game rules. Atm this seems more feasible for us to include in a custom game but it is not our top priority right now.
Just FYI an addition like that would not only mean for us to create a new filter in the Auto-Match. We would also have to add that to the "knowledge base" of the AI.
Nevertheless, we are watching the feedback we get from our community very closely and I want to thank you for the time and effort you put in to bring forward your feedback and ideas.
Catan Universe is not a project we gonna "finish" soon. There is always room to grow and room to integrate more play modes. But for now we are settling (no pun intended) with the Auto-Match to be standard and therefore we only want to include the standard rules.
Custom Match is a whole different story and we are much more interested in giving players the opportunity to create their favorite Catan playstyle there.