7s are too frequent



  • Seriously need to look at the frequency of 7s being rolled. In the last 5 games its been the most frequent number. The last 3 were (7/rounds) 20/82, 13/61, and 15/65. Near 20%. There is no fun in just trading 1 card between players.



  • Even worse, if I have more than seven cards in my hand, I tend to roll a 7 on my turn...

    "As a thousand commanders before me on a thousand battlefields, I await the dawn..."

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  • First of all, statistically 7 should be the most common number when rolling 2 dice. About 16.7% of the rolls should be 7s. In your case there are a bit more 7s than statistically probable. Sill, since there are so few dice rolls, this is still within normal bounds.

    When it comes to your trading... Maybe don't trade when you have too few cards to do anything with them.



  • @Stroom Sorry, by trading I meant stealing one card between players over and over. Also, we've played the board game countless times and none of us can remember more than a handful of times when the "7" was the most frequent number. As compared to this online version where it seems to be the norm.



  • Not only are they very frequent, but it seems as soon as you have more than seven cards in your hand, there's about an 80-90% chance that you're going to roll a 7 on your next turn. I'm not sure what it's like playing against other people (the games take way too long when you're relying on others...) but when you're against computers, you just know that if you have eight or more cards in your hard, that 7 is coming up as soon as you roll.



  • @skreezy said:

    Not only are they very frequent, but it seems as soon as you have more than seven cards in your hand, there's about an 80-90% chance that you're going to roll a 7 on your next turn. I'm not sure what it's like playing against other people (the games take way too long when you're relying on others...) but when you're against computers, you just know that if you have eight or more cards in your hard, that 7 is coming up as soon as you roll.

    Exactly. Almost guaranteed to happen. Maybe this and the lack of resources gained compared to AI players are what make the Master level a master level in this version...

    "As a thousand commanders before me on a thousand battlefields, I await the dawn..."

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  • I would have to agree with the above comments that the great majority of the time I reach 8 cards, I can pretty much count on a 7 being the next roll. I've also wanted to point out that maybe as much as 80-90% of my games start with a 7 - specifically a 5-2 roll - on the very first turn of the game. Not a 6-1, not a 4-3, but a 5-2 almost every single game on the first roll.
    I looked up the probabilities on dice rolls and, as mentioned previously, it makes sense mathematically that 7 would be the most common with 17% of the rolls. I just feel like it is more of a 22-25% rate and it's very curious that it just happens to be such a virtual certainty when the human player reaches 8 cards.


  • administrators

    @Vedder76 HAve you already checked out this thread of a fellow Catanian? https://forum.catanuniverse.com/topic/1706/dice-are-fair



  • @Administrator we have already said that this is incorrect. It does not show early game statistics which matter much more than late game. Also the settlements of Ai vs humans are not shown.


  • administrators

    @Stroom The mentioned thread gives statistical relevant information (due to the time the dice was rolled) about the distribution of the dice rolls in the game. As we are using a non-modified random generator this is a valid way of measuring its consistency. You are free to develop a test method of your own with a special setup e.g. by just choosing the first dice roll of every game or just looking at the first 10 dice roll of a game or just looking at the dice rolls of the AI if you (the player) have more than 7 resources. For one it will take quite long to execute it but I also predict you will come to the same conclusion after lets say 2000 to 3000 dice rolls in this specific setup.

    What useres are describing are mostly feelings not facts:

    @Vedder76 said:

    I just feel like it is more of a 22-25% rate and it's very curious that it just happens to be such a virtual certainty when the human player reaches 8 cards.

    And i personally can understand that it can be frustrating not being lucky with the dice rolls. Also i can understand the disbelief in probabilities or randomness.

    This is totally normal human behaviour. There are several psychological explanatory approaches to describe this behaviour. For example the confirmation bias or the gambler´s fallacy.

    Both of them i think apply in observations like this.

    For one, some users already have the belief that something is rigged because they feel bad for being unlucky with the dice roll. With this mind set they start to recognize patterns based on that feeling. They expect the 7 to be rolled and as soon as this is happening it confirms their theory. On the other hand there is the belief in the so called "law of small numbers" which -among other reasons - can cause the so called gambler´s fallacy. This is a presumption in the fact that small samples must be representative for a larger population.



  • @Administrator Not sure why I'm getting singled out here with a psychology lesson as I'm simply agreeing & empathizing with others who started and contributed more to the topic. I never formally claimed that the game was 'rigged' - just volunteering that potentially some kind of glitch in a formula or code that, admittedly, is way over my head could exist. If a statistician who put in countless hours rolling dice that I'm not inclined to take the time to read or replicate can explain it, that's great. However, I do think my submission that the game almost always starts with a 5-2 roll (including again on both of the 2 games I played before typing this) is worth checking out.

    Just throwing out another idea: What are the chances that an option for 'No Robber' be created alongsie the check box for 'Friendly Robber'? Then anyone who gets frustrated with it (whether justafiably or not) can just turn it off as a game setting?


  • administrators

    @Vedder76 I am sorry if you felt singled out! This was definitely not the idea behind my post. I just wanted to make a general point about these kind of observations. We get these post a lot and thats why we started to investigate what could be the cause of observations like that.

    About your "no Robber" suggestion. The robber is an inherent feature of the game. It serves many porpuses and is there for balancing. Think of it like the red or blue shells in Mario Card. It is a chance for other players to close the gap to the player in the lead or a direct competitor. Also it helps you to get ressources you may not get otherwise.
    Removing the Robber from the game in total would cause major balancing issues.
    We are aware of the fact that some players on PlayCatan use some kind of "soft" or "house rules" in regard of the usage of the robber. You are free to do so in a custom-game but for now we have now specific plans to integrate special rules into the Singleplayer mode.

    I personally would be intressted in seeing these rules written down. Maybe here in the forum? I can imagine other players would like to see those ideas, too. Maybe you can found a guild to team up with other players that want to play that way.



  • @Vedder76 (S)He isn't singling you out. In fact (s)he is doing the opposite. (S)he is stating that many people will have the same observation you do. Also, consider this: If a million players get random dice rolls, then some of them will get dice rolls that greatly disadvantage them. Those people will naturally be frustrated and post on the forum.


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